By Erika Yarrow-Soden
‘2024 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand’, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), released in January 2026 and now in its third edition, highlights the growing impacts of climate extremes on clean power systems, with climate variability and long-term climate change increasingly shaping the performance and reliability of renewable energy systems across the world.
With climate variability already shaping renewable energy supply (wind, solar and hydropower) and electricity demand worldwide, hydropower is particularly exposed to rainfall variability. The report found that while some regions retained average hydropower capacity – East Africa saw positive hydropower anomalies because of above-average rainfall – some parts of South America faced suppressed hydropower output and elevated demand under dry and hot conditions. In Central America and Mexico – home to more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of installed hydropower capacity – year-on-year variation reached 20%, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of approximately 3.5 million households, underscoring the importance of hydrological early warning systems in hydro-dependent regions.
As the report notes, this increased variability of weather-related resources coincides with extreme heat driving rapid growth in energy demand, and increasing system stress, as well as businesses increasingly looking to renewable energy in efforts to achieve net zero. The report emphasises that climate-informed planning and forecasting will be essential if energy security is to be maintained.
Rising temperatures
The report finds that 2024 – the warmest year on record, with global temperatures reaching around 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels – brought pronounced regional shifts in solar, wind and hydropower potential, alongside a 4% increase in climate-driven global energy demand compared with the 1991–2020 average. These climate-driven changes are occurring as global renewable energy capacity surpassed 4400 GW, amplifying the interaction between climate conditions and energy systems at an unprecedented scale. The findings underscore the urgency of integrating climate intelligence into energy planning as countries work to deliver on the COP28 United Arab Emirates (UAE) Consensus, which calls for renewable energy capacity to be tripled and energy efficiency to be doubled by 2030.
Prof. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, said: “Climate variability is no longer a background consideration for the energy sector – it is a defining operational factor. As renewable energy systems expand, their performance and reliability are increasingly shaped by heat extremes, rainfall variability and shifting atmospheric patterns. Integrating climate information and early warnings into energy planning is essential to build power systems that are both clean and resilient.”
Climate extremes amplify system stress
Using four core energy indicators (wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy, and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy), the analysis shows that residual El Niño conditions, record ocean heat and long-term warming produced strong regional contrasts in energy outcomes in 2024.
More reassuringly, the report notes that advances in forecasting and early warning information on heatwaves, rainfall shifts and large-scale climate drivers, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can support load management, reservoir operations, infrastructure scheduling and cross-border electricity trade, helping to reduce volatility in both supply and demand.
Regional variability
As the world struggles to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the climate-energy nexus presents a potential feedback loop that could further hinder progress in low- and middle-income countries in particular, with those most vulnerable and in need of basic services (including water, sanitation and hygiene) suffering the greatest when extremes of weather impact energy reliability. To avoid a dangerous step back in the delivery of the SDGs, there is an urgent need to close data gaps, strengthen observational networks and develop regional climate services – particularly in regions such as Africa, where renewable potential is vast but remains underused.
Key findings
The authors of the report provide 10 key points to support policymakers, utilities, independent power producers and grid operators with actionable, evidence-based insights to guide equitable and resilient energy transitions:
- Climate variability should be integrated into national energy planning.
- Resilient power systems need to be demand responsive.
- Regional climate-related variation must be considered in the renewable energy generation mix.
- Increases should be made to regional hydropower risk management and forecasting strengthened to address increasing variability.
- Compound climate risks in vulnerable regions must be addressed.
- There is an imperative to mainstream seasonal forecasting into operational decision-making.
- Regional atlases and improved climate data are critical to unlocking investment and guiding infrastructure development.
- It is essential for operational data gaps to be closed to strengthen climate-energy resilience.
- Climate-informed planning is essential to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 and COP 28 targets. Updated NDCs must reflect a climate-resilient approach to the energy transition.
- The integration of science and policy must be improved if a resilient energy transition is to be achieved – with the aim of this WMO-IRENA project being to deliver a robust, replicable framework for assessing climate impacts on renewable energy systems.
On this final point, this WMO and IRENA collaboration reaffirms a shared commitment to advancing climate-informed energy transition pathways.
By bridging the fields of meteorology and renewable energy, this report aims to support countries in building resilient, equitable and sustainable power systems, ensuring that the growth of renewables not only mitigates climate change, but also withstands its impacts. By providing an annual trajectory of climate impacts on energy, this report is relevant to multiple sectors for resource planning and security, in particular, in drives to achieve and maintain net zero.
