By Erika Yarrow-Soden
The United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) 16th edition of the Emissions Gap Report makes worrying, but not unexpected reading. It finds that available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have only slightly lowered global temperature rise over the course of this century, leaving the world heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.
The figures
The Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report.
However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the USA from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs have made very little impact.
With nations far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C, reductions to annual emissions of 35% and 55% respectively, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement pathways. Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them, and the challenging political climate, UNEP concedes that an exceedance of 1.5°C will very likely happen within the next decade.
The report finds that this overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to minimise climate risks and damages and to enable the return to 1.5°C by 2100 to even be a possibility.
The way forward
However challenging the picture, UNEP highlights that an optimistic, ‘driven’ approach is the essential way forward, with every fraction of a degree avoided meaning lower losses for people and ecosystems, lower costs, and less reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal techniques.
Indeed, since the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from the previous figure of 3-3.5°C. Technologies have evolved, with low carbon technologies now available to help deliver cuts in emissions. There is the potential to reduce GHG emissions significantly. As the report highlights, the international community could accelerate climate action given the political will. However, the delivery of faster cuts would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, with a massive increase in support to developing countries, and an overhaul of international financial structures.
So, is there the will?
Countries outline their efforts to reduce the GHGs that drive global warming through NDCs that are submitted every five years. The third round covers the period through to 2035.
Concerningly, the report finds that only 60 parties to the Paris Agreement, covering just 63% of emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs containing mitigation targets for 2035 by 30 September 2025. In addition to the lack of progress in pledges, a huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets. The UNEP calls for leadership from the G20 as its members – excluding the African Union – account for 77% of global emissions.
So far, seven G20 members have submitted new NDCs with targets for 2035, while three members have announced targets. However, UNEP says these pledges are just not ambitious enough. The report finds that G20 members are not currently on track to achieve even their 2030 NDC targets, and that G20 emissions rose by 0.7% in 2024. If the NDCs are going to have any meaningful impact, the biggest emitters must undertake a massive ramp up of efforts. The report notes that full implementation of all NDCs would reduce expected global emissions in 2035 by about 15% compared with 2019 levels – although the US withdrawal will change these figures.
Call for action
In his message in the report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres says: “Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a liveable future gets steeper by the day. But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
This call for action was further emphasised by Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, in her press statement at the launch of the report, stating that: “As renewable costs continue to plummet, we have – with the right policies – the chance for this to become the new norm. And, as UNEP data shows, action is growing to tackle short-lived climate pollutants like methane, which can bring temperatures down quickly. Action like this can help us pull the climate handbrake quickly. This report shows us we must. And we cannot forget, this action will deliver stronger economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience. A future every government should be working towards. Now is the time for all countries, particularly G20 members, to go all in and invest in their future, so we can finally start hitting the right climate targets.”
The projections are telling the global community that action is required swiftly and that inaction will cost more to humanity and the environment than the implementation of the tools that we have at hand to reduce emissions. It’s surely time for nations – especially the richest and most polluting – to step up and deliver the environmental revolution required for future generations to thrive. But the very near collapse of COP30 and the resultingly weak agreement leaves little cause for optimism that this will materialise.
