By Erika Yarrow-Soden
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) report, No Escape: On the frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement, published ahead of COP29, held in November 2024 in Azerbaijan, reports on the impact that climate change has on those displaced and in places of conflict.
Making sober reading, in addition to providing analysis of the current impact of climate change on the most vulnerable, it warns of the acceleration of conflict and displacement as a result of unfettered climate change and tells the stories of refugees tackling the devastation caused by extreme weather events and conflict today.
By putting faces to the statistics, this report challenges the notion that climate change is a problem of the future and urges decision-makers to adopt the recommendations of the report to help support those in need and avoid an escalation of conflict and displacement exacerbated by climate change.
The report finds that 75% of people forced to flee their homes live in countries with high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards. And whilst billions of dollars are going into climate finance to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change, little is being invested in the countries facing the harshest impacts of climate change, many of which are countries hosting the majority of forcibly displaced people. According to the report, regions considered ‘extremely fragile’ receive on average around $2 per person in annual adaptation funding, compared to $161 per person in non-fragile states.
As the world becomes increasingly volatile, so the number of people forcibly displaced in the world due to violence, conflict and climate-related hazards has accelerated, doubling to more than 120 million people over the past 10 years, with 90 million displaced people living in countries with high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards and nearly half of all forcibly displaced people faced with the challenges of both conflict and the impact of climate change.
According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), over the past 10 years, weather-related disasters have caused 220 million internal displacements – equivalent to approximately 60,000 displacements per day. The report states that by 2040 the number of countries facing ‘extreme climate-related hazards’ is expected to rise from three to 65, the vast majority of which are already hosting displaced populations. Extreme heat is also predicted to rise significantly, with most refugee settlements and camps projected to experience twice as many days of dangerous heat by 2050.
The report finds that although conflict remains the primary cause of cross-border displacement, the impacts of climate change can aggravate tensions and weaken social cohesion, with climate change deepening existing inequalities. And the effect of rising temperatures on the availability of natural resources such as fresh water and productive land can further exacerbate social tensions.
Whilst the situation is dire, the UNHCR sets out a roadmap for a multi-faceted response, based both on evidence-based science and the lived experience of those who are being most affected by the impacts of conflict and climate extremes. The report demonstrates sustainable solutions to avoid worst case scenarios through integrated approaches that are ‘climate-smart, protection- and gender-centred, human rights-based, conflict-sensitive, and peace-responsive’, and explores the complex and multidimensional relationships between conflict, climate change and forced displacement and the prevailing dynamics of socio-economic and political conditions.
The report suggests approaches to help strengthen the resilience and inclusion of displaced people and their hosts and close the gaps in available resources by guiding financing decisions through a needs-based approach, concluding with recommendations for improving policies and prioritising financing for climate action and the protection of refugees.
The UNHCR’s call for action concludes with four recommendations. The first is to protect displaced people fleeing in the context of climate change impacts and disasters by applying and adapting existing legal tools, ensuring that international refugee and human rights laws, international humanitarian laws and regional mechanisms apply when the need for international protection arises in cases of displacement in the context of climate change impacts and disasters, including in fragile and conflict-affected contexts. It also urges for national and local policy frameworks to address climate change with National Adaptation Plans and National Development Plans that incorporate provisions for the protection of displaced people.
The second recommendation is for the voices and needs of displaced populations and host communities to be included in climate finance and policy decisions. The report calls for COP to recognise displacement and the protection of displaced people who are in climate vulnerable situations and enable vulnerable countries and communities to participate meaningfully in policy discussions, helping host countries to include refugees in their climate action policies and plans as a basis for funding national priorities, including national adaptation plans, nationally determined contributions, disaster risk reduction strategies and early warning systems.
The third recommendation is to invest in building climate resilience where needs are greatest, especially in fragile and conflict affected settings by ensuring that funding windows and mechanisms are available.
UNHCR calls for the mobilisation of technical assistance and institutional capacity to enable readiness to absorb, access and implement climate action finance, and ensure accountability to refugees, host countries and local communities to ensure a greater proportion of climate-sensitive and peace-responsive climate finance reaches those living on the frontlines of the climate crisis, especially in fragile and conflict-affected areas.
Finally, the report calls for an acceleration in the reduction of carbon emissions to prevent climate disaster and to avert and minimise further displacement.
